Sunday, March 20, 2011
Should You Guess On The SAT's?
Short answer: yes.
Every year, College Board administers eight SAT tests. 1.3 million students take the test at $60 a pop. Now, if they're going to take in over $600 million a year, they're going to make your lives pretty good, right? Nope. Rather, after the essay (which, let's face it, they roll a die and whatever it lands on is the score you get), they make you get up at the un-Godly hours of a Saturday morning, lock you in a sweaty room for five and a half hours, and give you incredibly hard multiple choice questions with words you've never heard before.
To make things worse, they subtract one quarter of a point for an incorrect answer. Thanks.
Anyway, there are five answer choices.
Correct = +1
Incorrect = -1/4
Incorrect = -1/4
Incorrect = -1/4
Incorrect = -1/4
Thus, one beneficial answer at a total of one positive point. To counterbalance, four negative answers at one quarter of a point each for a total of negative one point. Theoretically, if you could answer all five answers, you'd get zero points, which is just what you get for skipping a question.
Let's put it this way. Remember "Deal or No Deal"? Let's think of it as a game of that. (If you don't remember, it was a show where greedy people would throw away a chance at riches since "The one million dollars is in my case!" even though it was a measly $5 and they trudged back to their miserable lives. For a less biased description, read the Wikipedia article.) To make things simpler (for myself), let's add the +1 and -1 by one to make 2 points for a correct answer, 1 for an omission, and 0 for the four incorrect answers.
Here's the first question.
1. Looking to his right and seeing a(n) -----, Alex realized he could use a -----.
a. Salt shaker... pepper shaker
b. Empty wallet... job
c. Dirty table... rag
d. Piece of paper... pen
e. Blank calendar... life
The answer is (e). Congratulations.
Anyway, say for instance you didn't know who Alex was. You look at this question and you have no clue. In this case, all four incorrect answers are still in play. The combined penalty for a wrong answer is -1. Also say for instance that you're on Deal or No Deal, and you have vowed to play to the end just to see all the big amounts whittle away. Your two cases are $2 and $0. The banker offers $1.
Deal or no deal?
People buy lottery tickets for this exact reason. The odds of winning on a typical lottery ticket are right around one in five. If you bought one hundred $1 lottery tickets, you won't make $100 back, but the odds tell us you'll still make a significant chunk of it back. Thus, the penalty for losing on a ticket is the $1 you paid for it. If you win, let's just say the average payout is $5, minus the $1 you paid for the ticket. Obviously, not buying the ticket won't cost you anything at all. At the end of the day, it's good honest fun.
Back to the less fun SAT's. You then start to realize "Wait a minute, Alex doesn't put pepper on his food!" You now have eliminated one wrong answer. At this point it's REALLY worth guessing. You have a combined penalty of -3/4. Thus, your cases are now $2 and $.25. The banker offers $1.
Deal or no deal?
Another look. "Wait a minute," you think to yourself. "Alex is extremely frugal. His wallet would never be empty!" Once again, you've eliminated a wrong answer. You're down to one in three odds. The correct answer is now double the combined penalty of the incorrect answers. Your cases are now $2 and $.50, yet the banker is still generous and offers $1.
Deal or no deal?
At this point, you're really thinking about guessing. For the time being, you go through and do all the other questions and have plenty of time to answer this question. After your mind was cleared for a while, you once again have a revelation. "Wait a minute," you think. "Alex never cleans his tables! Why would he need a rag!" Now you're down to two options, the +1 for a correct and -1/4 for an incorrect. For the love of goodness, please guess. Your cases, if you've lost track, are $2 and $.75. The banker, out of some drunken rage, has once again offered $1.
Deal or no deal?
For some reason, you have said no deal. Howie reaches into your case, but before he gets a chance to open it, a thought jumps in your head. "Wait a minute," you think for the final time. "Alex hates pens! He always uses pencils!" As you fill in E, your proctor calls time. Your case holds $2. Congratulations.
The only time I'd ever skip the question is if I had absolutely no idea and can't even comprehend the question. But as long as you can make some rational thought, pick the answer that makes the most sense. That's all there is to it. If you do, maybe you'll get lucky and get two out of five guesses right. That could bump your college money up. When you're thirty five and you're done paying your college loans thanks to your newfound SAT skills, you'll thank me.
Oh, and for the record, if you're ever on Deal or No Deal and the $1,000,000 and $.01 stare you in the face, TAKE THE DEAL. Don't be like this guy:
Subscribe to Comments [Atom]
Post a Comment